Saturday, August 19, 2006
The Iranian issue is interesting, but this blog believes that at least some of the debate is missing the big picture. Let’s review the facts, Iran is a net oil producer with some of the largest reserves of oil in the world, Iran needs nuclear fuel to ramp up its energy sector. Assuming at least some of the nuclear energy is really needed for energy, are we thus facing the situation of Iran running low on oil? Does it therefore strike anyone that the much discussed oil crisis maybe much closer than expected?
There have been assertions flying around for quite some time already that oil from the ground is finite; the crux of the debate is really how long can the black stuff last. On one hand we have the OPEC members who believe that oil can last at least till the next century. Indeed proven oil reserves in OPEC nations do suggest that given current production and consumption, we could probably outlive the supply of oil and let our children deal with the shortage. However, the reality is as always not that straight forward. Most fields are rate and pressure sensitive, which in effect means the more we pump out today, the less we can get out eventually. Which makes proven reserves an inaccurate measure of eventual production. This leaves us with a slippery definition of oil reserves and an erroneous judgment of the amount of time we have before our reliance on oil must shift.
It is true that man will eventually find a method of substituting oil, and current to some countries, going nuclear seems attractive. There is the advert of fuel cells and ionic cells, but the scale of these have been relatively small. It is almost as if no one sees any urgency at all, which is not all that surprising. We have made mistakes in judgment, as individuals and as a collective whole, but this quite different from all the other mistakes that we have been making. After all, first we can foresee the direction of the whole situation and second, we do have some alternatives on the table already. We can and indeed we must stop this slide to implosion, and by the way, if EDB can get a monopoly on the alternatives energy market, this blog asserts Singapore will be in good stead for the next few decades.
1:07 AM
Thursday, August 10, 2006
海天寥廓 云树苍笼 中有我华中
礼门义路 时雨春风 吾侪托帡幪
猗与华中 南方之强 我中华之光
雄立狮岛 式是炎荒 万世其无疆
人生茫茫 学海洋洋 吾侪当自强
朝乾夕惕 日就月将 莫负好时光
猗与华中 南方之强 我中华之光
雄立狮岛 式是炎荒 万世其无疆
迨予庶士 笃实辉光 斐然已成章
膂力方刚 经营四方 前途浩且长
猗与华中 南方之强 我中华之光
雄立狮岛 式是炎荒 万世其无疆
2:50 AM
In so many ways the urgency and complexity of the Middle East issue today belies the fact that in essence, the entire situation is caused by a lack of communication between the Israeli and Arab fractions. If not for the severity of the situation, and the potential for escalation into a regional conflict, the whole fiasco seems to be comical. Which country will stand back and allow its troops to be kidnapped on its own soil and not be expected to retaliate. Which country will allow long range rockets to strike its largest cities and not at least attempt to take out the enemy. These are the questions that Lebanon should be asking when they suggest that Israel take the blame for everything.
On the flip side, the Israelis are not doing themselves any favors by attacking areas that are perceived to be civilian areas. Daily reports of children dying do not make for an especially strong case for the continued use of force to control the Hezbollah. It is difficult to claim that every civilian building that is destroy, accidentally or otherwise contain terror suspects, and the stance that the Hezbollah is using human shields simply do not have any evidence to support it.
Over and over we see that the root of the problem is neither the Israeli nor the Lebanese government. Instead, the purported terror groups that are sheltered by Lebanon seem to be causing all the trouble. Just a year ago, the road map seems to be on schedule to a smooth completion, with Israeli unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank, and promises of a crease fire discussed. But the situation has just gone down hill from there. It will be disingenuous to suggest that Israel is not committed to peace, just as it is impossible to suggest that the Arabs are deliberately stomping on Israel’s toes. Quick fixes are always present, simply stop the fighting and let the UN come in. But this blog asserts that the US is not pushing for this is precisely because a quick fix is really just that, a short term solution to a very protracted problem. It will help if both sides are willing to come to the negotiating table, but that possibility seems to be at best remote. Discussions is the key to resolution in this particular instance more than ever, and unfortunately there is no power in the world that can strong arm both sides to do just that. The US will not want to antagonize its long term allies, nor will it want to rock the Arab boat given the shortage of oil today.
There are solutions, but none are easy. So perhaps it will help to come back to diplomacy, in the meantime it will help if the missiles are not fired into Haifa.
2:15 AM
