Wednesday, July 05, 2006
Wonder how many of you read the 'World Cup and Economics' article by Goldman Sachs. While providing some insights into the effects of the World Cup on economy, this blog believes that its most interesting claim is the vice versa, that the level of soccer is correlative to the state of the economy.
However, of interest in this blog is the probabilities given by Goldman Sachs on the winning team. Focusing our attention on the semi-finalists, we have,
Germany 5.5%
France 8.3%
Italy 5.3%
Portugal 5.8%
Which corrects to,
Germany 22.1%
France 33.3%
Italy 21.3%
Portugal 23.2%
As we are ignoring the other nations that failed to qualify. This suggests that France will have a strong chance of qualifying, which is not far off the mark considering that they did face the stern test of Brazil. The relatively similar weightings of the other nations belie the fact that Germany is on home ground and Portugal is a relative new comer at this stage.
Of course, like all probabilities, these figures are affected by uncertainties. This is clearly the case when in the 2002 reports, Brazil was left out in the predictions for teams that will reach the semi finals, only the win the cup. This time, the teams chosen for the final four are Brazil, Germany, England and Italy. Which is really only 50% correct. However, this is a World Cup where historical precedence is still a compelling factor. England lost on penalties, Spain lost to France again, and the Scolari curse is still there.
Thus, in conclusion, perhaps its better to extrapolate the past and hope that it works out for the team that you like. Which is precisely why the match between Germany and Italy is so interesting, either the precedence of Germany not losing at Dortmund or Italy unbeaten run against Germany must go.
12:23 AM
Sunday, July 02, 2006
Why is it that youth teams consist of so many players that are born in the same months? Apparently, there is a very interesting answer to this question provided by Steve Levitt (Freakonomics). When the season starts there is a deadline to submission of player names. Apparently coaches are far more inclined to choose player that are say, 12.9 years of age as compared to 12.1 years. This inadvertently results in players born in certain months to be more likely to be chosen.
Here is the interesting bit, the additional amount of time that the players that are choosen has, about 11 or so months, is sufficient for them to be able to play far better than their counterparts who do not have the benefit of time. This leads to the conclusion that football like everything else is 1 part talent, 9 parts hard, tough work. This is a self reinforcing cycle, 11 months give you a headstart, join the youth team, with more specialized training and perhaps in 5, 6 years, you will become Zizou or Ronaldo or Beckham.
Of course this is a horrible simplification of reality, and to some extent trivializes the ability of best players in the world. But we should all take heart that hard work at the start, can lead you on a road that you never hoped to dream about.
Till then, enjoy the World Cup. (This blog is hoping that Germany will win. Screw off Brazil.)
2:19 AM
