Saturday, August 19, 2006
The Iranian issue is interesting, but this blog believes that at least some of the debate is missing the big picture. Let’s review the facts, Iran is a net oil producer with some of the largest reserves of oil in the world, Iran needs nuclear fuel to ramp up its energy sector. Assuming at least some of the nuclear energy is really needed for energy, are we thus facing the situation of Iran running low on oil? Does it therefore strike anyone that the much discussed oil crisis maybe much closer than expected?
There have been assertions flying around for quite some time already that oil from the ground is finite; the crux of the debate is really how long can the black stuff last. On one hand we have the OPEC members who believe that oil can last at least till the next century. Indeed proven oil reserves in OPEC nations do suggest that given current production and consumption, we could probably outlive the supply of oil and let our children deal with the shortage. However, the reality is as always not that straight forward. Most fields are rate and pressure sensitive, which in effect means the more we pump out today, the less we can get out eventually. Which makes proven reserves an inaccurate measure of eventual production. This leaves us with a slippery definition of oil reserves and an erroneous judgment of the amount of time we have before our reliance on oil must shift.
It is true that man will eventually find a method of substituting oil, and current to some countries, going nuclear seems attractive. There is the advert of fuel cells and ionic cells, but the scale of these have been relatively small. It is almost as if no one sees any urgency at all, which is not all that surprising. We have made mistakes in judgment, as individuals and as a collective whole, but this quite different from all the other mistakes that we have been making. After all, first we can foresee the direction of the whole situation and second, we do have some alternatives on the table already. We can and indeed we must stop this slide to implosion, and by the way, if EDB can get a monopoly on the alternatives energy market, this blog asserts Singapore will be in good stead for the next few decades.
1:07 AM
Thursday, August 10, 2006
海天寥廓 云树苍笼 中有我华中
礼门义路 时雨春风 吾侪托帡幪
猗与华中 南方之强 我中华之光
雄立狮岛 式是炎荒 万世其无疆
人生茫茫 学海洋洋 吾侪当自强
朝乾夕惕 日就月将 莫负好时光
猗与华中 南方之强 我中华之光
雄立狮岛 式是炎荒 万世其无疆
迨予庶士 笃实辉光 斐然已成章
膂力方刚 经营四方 前途浩且长
猗与华中 南方之强 我中华之光
雄立狮岛 式是炎荒 万世其无疆
2:50 AM
In so many ways the urgency and complexity of the Middle East issue today belies the fact that in essence, the entire situation is caused by a lack of communication between the Israeli and Arab fractions. If not for the severity of the situation, and the potential for escalation into a regional conflict, the whole fiasco seems to be comical. Which country will stand back and allow its troops to be kidnapped on its own soil and not be expected to retaliate. Which country will allow long range rockets to strike its largest cities and not at least attempt to take out the enemy. These are the questions that Lebanon should be asking when they suggest that Israel take the blame for everything.
On the flip side, the Israelis are not doing themselves any favors by attacking areas that are perceived to be civilian areas. Daily reports of children dying do not make for an especially strong case for the continued use of force to control the Hezbollah. It is difficult to claim that every civilian building that is destroy, accidentally or otherwise contain terror suspects, and the stance that the Hezbollah is using human shields simply do not have any evidence to support it.
Over and over we see that the root of the problem is neither the Israeli nor the Lebanese government. Instead, the purported terror groups that are sheltered by Lebanon seem to be causing all the trouble. Just a year ago, the road map seems to be on schedule to a smooth completion, with Israeli unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank, and promises of a crease fire discussed. But the situation has just gone down hill from there. It will be disingenuous to suggest that Israel is not committed to peace, just as it is impossible to suggest that the Arabs are deliberately stomping on Israel’s toes. Quick fixes are always present, simply stop the fighting and let the UN come in. But this blog asserts that the US is not pushing for this is precisely because a quick fix is really just that, a short term solution to a very protracted problem. It will help if both sides are willing to come to the negotiating table, but that possibility seems to be at best remote. Discussions is the key to resolution in this particular instance more than ever, and unfortunately there is no power in the world that can strong arm both sides to do just that. The US will not want to antagonize its long term allies, nor will it want to rock the Arab boat given the shortage of oil today.
There are solutions, but none are easy. So perhaps it will help to come back to diplomacy, in the meantime it will help if the missiles are not fired into Haifa.
2:15 AM
Wednesday, July 05, 2006
Wonder how many of you read the 'World Cup and Economics' article by Goldman Sachs. While providing some insights into the effects of the World Cup on economy, this blog believes that its most interesting claim is the vice versa, that the level of soccer is correlative to the state of the economy.
However, of interest in this blog is the probabilities given by Goldman Sachs on the winning team. Focusing our attention on the semi-finalists, we have,
Germany 5.5%
France 8.3%
Italy 5.3%
Portugal 5.8%
Which corrects to,
Germany 22.1%
France 33.3%
Italy 21.3%
Portugal 23.2%
As we are ignoring the other nations that failed to qualify. This suggests that France will have a strong chance of qualifying, which is not far off the mark considering that they did face the stern test of Brazil. The relatively similar weightings of the other nations belie the fact that Germany is on home ground and Portugal is a relative new comer at this stage.
Of course, like all probabilities, these figures are affected by uncertainties. This is clearly the case when in the 2002 reports, Brazil was left out in the predictions for teams that will reach the semi finals, only the win the cup. This time, the teams chosen for the final four are Brazil, Germany, England and Italy. Which is really only 50% correct. However, this is a World Cup where historical precedence is still a compelling factor. England lost on penalties, Spain lost to France again, and the Scolari curse is still there.
Thus, in conclusion, perhaps its better to extrapolate the past and hope that it works out for the team that you like. Which is precisely why the match between Germany and Italy is so interesting, either the precedence of Germany not losing at Dortmund or Italy unbeaten run against Germany must go.
12:23 AM
Sunday, July 02, 2006
Why is it that youth teams consist of so many players that are born in the same months? Apparently, there is a very interesting answer to this question provided by Steve Levitt (Freakonomics). When the season starts there is a deadline to submission of player names. Apparently coaches are far more inclined to choose player that are say, 12.9 years of age as compared to 12.1 years. This inadvertently results in players born in certain months to be more likely to be chosen.
Here is the interesting bit, the additional amount of time that the players that are choosen has, about 11 or so months, is sufficient for them to be able to play far better than their counterparts who do not have the benefit of time. This leads to the conclusion that football like everything else is 1 part talent, 9 parts hard, tough work. This is a self reinforcing cycle, 11 months give you a headstart, join the youth team, with more specialized training and perhaps in 5, 6 years, you will become Zizou or Ronaldo or Beckham.
Of course this is a horrible simplification of reality, and to some extent trivializes the ability of best players in the world. But we should all take heart that hard work at the start, can lead you on a road that you never hoped to dream about.
Till then, enjoy the World Cup. (This blog is hoping that Germany will win. Screw off Brazil.)
2:19 AM
Sunday, June 25, 2006
BroadcastAsia is surprisingly informative, but sadly flat on new ideas. While there was certainly an exchange of information, this blog believes that most of these presentations are in fact rather stale and rehashed, far from the dramatic revolution that it heralded. Poignantly, one of the most prescient observations was that Singapore’s broadcasters are national broadcasters, they are hampered by the legacy of traditional trade, while at the same time burdened by the bottom-line. The juxtaposition of these two characteristics seems to combine the weakness of both a free media industry and a government funded industry.
Singapore media may not be the worst in the world, but it is still a long way from the best. Its Chinese channels of 8 and U simply cannot match up to the programs offered by China and specifically Hong Kong. The shows are increasingly drab and the flagship productions by Jack Neo and crew and becoming literally a very bad joke. The Channel 5 productions do not fare much better either. CNA is supposedly a regional best, but the series of informative programs offered by it belie its ranking. Since this blogger is a Chinese, this blog shall not comment on the Suria and Vasantham Central channels. The latter also airs Arts Central which is relatively interesting, due mainly to the lack of locally produced shows on that channel. Kids Central seems to the only exception (Gundam Seed!).
This unfortunate state of affairs is sadly mirrored in the Singapore movie industry. With little more than Raintree Productions to show for all its efforts, the Media Development Authority (MDA) seems increasingly to be running on an empty tank. While there is loud trumpeting on the millions that are being spent to bring the media industry to the next level, this blog believes that perhaps, the money is actually detrimental to the film in the end. This is due to several reasons, including but not limited to,
First, the money provided is normally not enough to film the entire movie. Thus the efforts of the production crew will include crevassing for funds. Even if we argue that this will not impede the development of the movie, the quality of the show may in fact be negatively affected by the need to use cheaper production methods, which may not produce the most desirable outcome.
Second, the MDA with its grants may crowd out investment from private investors. This is especially important when unproven directors start out with their first productions. Why should private investors want to aide these directors and at the same time compete with the MDA for a slice of a very small pie?
Third, productions are not only about money. Equally important are the creativity and script writing aspects. Given the bounds of government censor and societal paradigms in Singapore, there really is not much space to push the limits.
On the whole it is heartening to see that Singapore broadcasting today is not longer limited by the hardware aspects. If anything at all, the infrastructure is mostly present. The biggest problem is finding a balanced policy of competition and funding that is sustainable and able to reach a wide audience. Unfortunately, these are precisely the problems that are not tackled by BroadcastAsia.
9:36 PM
Friday, June 23, 2006
This blog wonders where has all the opposition parties in Singapore disappeared to. Barely two months has passed since the elections, and apparently all the hype about the opposition working the grounds seems to have vanished.
If for no other reason, everything seems to have gone downhill since the elections in May. Boisterous predictions of the STI climbing another 10% have instead seen the index plummet more than that amount in the opposite direction. The job market is tightening again, as the government attempts to curb inflationary pressures on the economy. And as always, the education system has gone through another round of change.
Where is the opposition? Unless this blog is quite mistaken, Singapore is still a democracy where the powers of the legislature, executive and judiciary still hold. So where are the debates on the present state of the economy? Where are there dialogues on how the education system should be run? Here, clearly the true caliber of the opposition is exposed. Unfortunately the picture is not a pretty one. The opposition has put itself in a tight corner, purposely drawing the battle lines such that the field is narrow and sadly becomes a mockery of the whole idea of an alternative voice in parliament. In fact, the situation has deteriorated to such an extent that the average blogger has more complaints about the government and is far more eloquent than the average opposition member.
We have all heard the reasons for why the PAP cannot be a single party government, just as we have all understood why the strength of a single party is better than a government that is splintered and fractions. But increasingly, the feeling of ineptness on the part of the opposition makes for a convincing argument on why the PAP must continue to rule. It is no longer about choice, because simply, the choice is better the devil and the deep blue sea. This do not make the PAP anymore capable or anymore competent, it just means that by default, Singapore has no alternative to the voice of the PAP. This blog has argued before that the PAP cannot rule as a single party because simply there must be more check and balances, more ideas from different facets of society, more input from the grassroots, but these argumentation are based on the assumption of at least a plausible opposition. This opposition is today non-existent.
A start will be to question. Not on when the lifts will be upgraded or other superficial issue. Ask the real questions, at the right stage at the right time. This blog believes that grooming of the next generation of opposition politicians cannot occur until that happens. And for heaven's sake being a Chinese-ed do not exempt you from speaking good English.
2:32 AM
